Elections this weekend

The ACT and a handful of seats in NSW go to the polls this weekend. I’ll leave most of the commentary and analysis to Antony Green with regards to the ACT election but I will say that it’s entirely likely, on current polling, that the Greens will win 4 of the 17 seats up for grabs, denying both major parties a majority government. Whether the ACT Greens will enter into Coalition with either party or act as the balance of power and support the motions of either side in return for support on Green policy is up to them.

In NSW, resignations of ALP Ministers gives us by-elections in Cabramatta (Reba Meagher), Ryde (the scandal-free John Watkins) and Lakemba (Morris Iemma) and the election of Rob Oakeshott to the Federal parliament gives us a byelection in regional Port Macquarie. Polling in Ryde of 500 voters, according to the weekend’s Sun-Herald, shows a 20% swing against the ALP in Ryde. The Sun-Herald draws the inference that if this poll’s results were replicated across the state at the next NSW election (due in 2011) then the Rees government would be swept out of office. While it’s true, it’s an abuse of statistics to assume that 500 voters in one electorate facing a by-election is an accurate sample of the people of NSW’s intention to vote in three years time. I guess dodgy statistical interpretation isn’t limited to Dennis Shanahan.

My predictions? Labor will keep Cabramatta and Lakemba but may lose Ryde. Port Macquarie is likely to go to Oakeshott’s old staffer Peter Besseling as I can’t see Labor (who aren’t even contesting) and the Greens recommending preferences to the Nationals over the independents.

Edit: More from Guy Beres.